Animated Polymarket trade-analysis explainer about sports betting profits

One Polymarket account turned sports betting into a payoff curve. +$4,243,081 on football, tennis and NBA. built with JEV + Claude Opus 5.5. look at where the money came from: PSG to win the Champions League, bought at 2.5¢ → +$699,407 Arsenal to win the Champions League at 2.3¢ → +$546,543 Zverev to win the US Open at 49¢ → +$1,051,093 England to advance vs Mexico at 52¢ → +$550,176 Spain to win the World Cup at 31¢ → +$483,428 two different games in one account: → longshots at 2-3¢. $1 pays $40 if it hits. most of them miss, and that's fine. one hit covers the whole list. → coin-flips at 31-52¢. this is where the size goes, and only when the price looks wrong. then there's the stuff that isn't a bet on who wins: → 500 recent trades: 274 buys, 226 sells, mostly NFL games still in play → ~$220K on YES and ~$220K on NO for Vance winning the 2028 GOP nomination. barely moves either way → NO on Man City for the Premier League ($293K), NO on Barcelona for the Champions League ($193K) avg trade $1,267. biggest $66,956. $116M total volume. he isn't better at picking winners than anyone else. he pays pennies where the upside is huge, sizes up only when the odds are off, and trades the game while it's live. account: ndb1

— hammertime (@hammertime_one) Sep 28, 2026